Black Sea: new focus of NATO expansion

by

Peter Finn

BUCHAREST: Romania and Bulgaria have unexpectedly been catapulted into serious consideration for membership in NATO in its next round of expansion because of the post-Sept. 11 strategic importance of the Black Sea, which could provide a military platform for any widening of the U.S. war against terrorism, according to U.S., NATO and East European diplomats.

The two countries' prospects have improved despite long-standing concerns about democratic reform, corruption and military readiness in both.

With four or five other post-Communist countries already likely to receive invitations to join the alliance at a summit meeting in Prague this November, NATO is on the threshold of its largest expansion ever and one that few imagined possible just nine months ago.

"Romania and Bulgaria are making the best use of this tragic opportunity," the Bulgarian foreign minister, Solomon Passy, said in an interview.

The leaders of 10 ex-Communist countries hoping to join NATO met Monday in Bucharest. U.S. and NATO officials appear to have agreed that Slovenia and three Baltic States - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - are now almost certain to receive invitations. A fifth country, Slovakia, will also be invited if a former authoritarian leader, Vladimir Meciar, is not returned to power in fall elections.

Albania, Croatia and Macedonia also were attending the two days of talks in Bucharest but are not regarded as viable candidates.

But the real possibility of seven countries joining NATO - following the 1999 accession of Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary - represents a significant turnaround from just nine months ago. "The big bang is real," said a diplomat from a NATO country. "And I couldn't have imagined it possible because I couldn't imagine Sept. 11."

U.S. tanker aircraft that refuel fighter planes in the Afghan theater are flying out of a Bulgarian military airport on the Black Sea that is now a de facto U.S. base. This is the first time that Bulgaria has turned over a base to foreign troops, including World War II and the Warsaw Pact era, according to Passy.

Both countries have also opened up their airspace unconditionally and offered the use of all land and port facilities. Twenty U.S. military flights to and from Afghanistan cross Romania each day, officials here said.

Bulgarian and Romanian troops are serving as peacekeepers in Kabul and the government here has offered a specialized mountain unit for service.

They both have tripled their presence in international peacekeeping missions in the Balkans to free up allied troops for Afghanistan. And a Romanian military facility in the Black Sea city of Constanza is about to become a staging ground for the rotation of U.S. troops in and out of the Balkans and possibly other theaters, officials said.

"Sept. 11 transformed the Black Sea into a natural springboard," the Romanian foreign minister, Mircea Geoana, said in an interview.

In the rush to impress the Bush administration, viewed as the key voice in determining the final number of countries invited to join NATO at the Prague gathering, they are refurbishing airstrips and ports with the implicit promise that if the United States wishes to use them in future campaigns, including any strikes against Iraq, they are there for the asking.

Regarding Iraq, Passy said that the "next time" the United States "asks for support, or needs support, Bulgaria will be an excellent ally." Romanian officials echoed his comments.

With Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries with U.S. military bases much more skeptical of an attack on Iraq, those offers have not gone unnoticed in Washington, diplomats said. But U.S. officials continue to stress the need to speed up the reform process in the two countries that have long been regarded as laggards, particularly on the issue of rooting out endemic corruption.

"I'm here to encourage both countries to sprint to the finish line," said Richard Armitage, U.S. deputy secretary of state, whose appearance at the Bucharest talks underlines the seriousness of the Romanian and Bulgarian claims on membership.

Before the attacks on New York and Washington, the accession of the Baltic States, taking the alliance into the territory of the former Soviet Union, was a matter of deep controversy because of Russian sensitivities. European countries, in particular, were loath to challenge Russia on the issue. German officials spoke of a "Slo-Slo" approach, meaning Slovenia and Slovakia only.

But Russia's role in the anti-terrorism coalition, which is redefining its relationship with NATO, has made that debate over the Baltics irrelevant. And the question now is whether four, six or seven countries are invited to join the alliance next November. "9-11 has had a very riveting effect on NATO and the aspiring countries," said Armitage. "A lot of things have happened and a lot of things have come to the attention of the NATO countries."

Turkey and Greece have united behind the candidacies of Romania and Bulgaria, arguing that expansion in the south is critical to the region's security because of transnational crime and instability in places like Macedonia.

"There was a lack of dialogue between Greece and Turkey," said the Turkish prime minister, Bulent Ecevit. But, he added, "We have interests - the preservation of the stability of the region." NATO expansion, he said, cannot be limited to Northern and Central Europe.

The foreign ministers of the four countries are planning a joint trip to Washington to press the case of Romania and Bulgaria. Romanian and Bulgarian officials said they also expect France, Italy and Spain to endorse expansion in the south.

The region remains a corridor for trafficking in weapons, drugs, illegal migrants and women sold into sexual slavery. And the level of criminality has been facilitated by rampant corruption, U.S. and NATO officials said.

Both countries have launched anti-corruption measures to tackle the problem, but Western officials are stressing that new legislation must be seen to be effective in the coming months - including, if possible, the bringing of indictments against senior figures in government and the bureaucracy. "A few scalps would help," said a U.S. official.